Why can an uncertain plan, an unanswered message or a decision about the future feel so difficult to leave open? For some autistic people, the problem is more than wanting to know what will happen. The uncertainty itself can become exhausting, especially when there is no way to get a definite answer yet.

I have created a free illustrated leaflet, Understanding Uncertainty and Anxiety, to explore one possible explanation. It brings together seven graphics and a plain-English guide to the research behind them. The leaflet is intended to help autistic readers recognise a pattern that may be familiar, and to find words for what might help.

Where the idea comes from

The leaflet is based on a paper by Eloise Stark and colleagues called Autistic Cognition: Charting Routes to Anxiety. The authors bring together research on predictive processing, intolerance of uncertainty and black-and-white thinking. They propose that these processes may interact to create a route to anxiety for some autistic people.

Predictive processing is the way our brains use past experience to help make sense of what is happening now. We all combine incoming details with expectations about what those details are likely to mean. The balance may sometimes differ for autistic people, particularly in certain auditory or complex social situations. The evidence varies between tasks, so this is not a single rule about how autistic brains work.

There can be strengths in paying close attention to the information in front of us. It may help us notice changes, question assumptions and see details that others miss. It can also take more work to build a clear picture when the information is moving quickly or when important parts are still unknown.

The clouds and the certainty boxes

In my graphics, clouds represent the parts of a situation that cannot yet be pinned down: “What if?”, “I don’t know”, “I have to wait and see.” They are ordinary thoughts about genuinely uncertain things. A cloud might be an unclear social exchange, a change of plan or a future event whose outcome has not been decided.

The research reviewed by Stark and colleagues shows a strong link between autism and intolerance of uncertainty – finding it particularly hard to manage situations where an answer is unavailable. This can include both a drive to make things predictable and the experience of feeling stuck when certainty cannot be found.

The authors then suggest a possible response to that discomfort. If an uncertain situation feels overwhelming, reducing it to two definite outcomes – success or failure, good or bad, possible or impossible – may bring some immediate relief. My graphics show those definite answers as certainty boxes. They make the situation feel smaller for a while, but they may leave out information that would help us decide what to do next.

This proposed link between uncertainty, anxiety and black-and-white thinking still needs to be tested. It is one possible explanation, and it will not describe every autistic person’s experience. The clouds and boxes are my way of illustrating the idea; they are not a method tested in the paper.

What might help when you feel stuck?

The final graphic shows the possibility of leaving a cloud open without immediately forcing it into a certainty box. That can be a gentle question to consider: What do I know now, what cannot be known yet, and what would help me feel supported while I wait? You do not have to tackle a large or frightening uncertainty to begin with.

Support may also mean changing the situation. Clear instructions, advance notice, a written plan, a quieter environment or knowing when an update will arrive can reduce uncertainty that never needed to be there. The paper asks us to consider the person’s environment and experiences, as well as their thinking.

The leaflet keeps all seven graphics in full, with an explanation beside each one. I hope it gives autistic readers, families and professionals a way to talk about anxiety with more precision and compassion, while leaving room for the many different reasons a person might feel overwhelmed.

Research reference

Stark, E., Stacey, J., Mandy, W., Kringelbach, M. L. and Happé, F. (2021) ‘Autistic cognition: Charting routes to anxiety’, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 25(7), pp. 571–581. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2021.03.014

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Written by Kate Coldrick, a literacy tutor and educational writer based in Woodbury near Exeter. My work focuses on inclusive literacy teaching, autism, dyslexia, neurodiversity and assessment, particularly for pupils whose understanding is not always fully reflected by standard written tasks or test conditions.

For related teaching materials, downloadable resources and guides, visit my resources page.